tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9095846283753113916.post7613529531234048552..comments2019-11-19T21:01:30.631-08:00Comments on A Horse of Peas: Pre-mortems and the Day After GameTimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08446063420625838576noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9095846283753113916.post-32511336107664613202009-03-11T13:59:00.000-07:002009-03-11T13:59:00.000-07:00I already did ;)I already did ;)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9095846283753113916.post-43944942719586742592009-03-11T11:08:00.000-07:002009-03-11T11:08:00.000-07:00Thanks for the link, Rex. That's a great piece, a...Thanks for the link, Rex. That's a great piece, and I'll have to post something about it sometime.Timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08446063420625838576noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9095846283753113916.post-17775286583029254732009-03-11T09:52:00.000-07:002009-03-11T09:52:00.000-07:00Oh, that is a clever idea. I may try it in the cla...Oh, that is a clever idea. I may try it in the classroom at some point.<BR/><BR/>The intel community sometimes does sometimes does something somewhat similar with alternatives analysis exercises. In one variant of this, analysts are given a series of outcomes, and asked to work backwards to identify the drivers and decision-points which might lead to them. This produces rather different insights than the usual analytical process (which tends to work forward from known factors to identify most probable outcomes).<BR/><BR/>You'll find some discussion of alternatives analysis (including the use of "rapid sims" and gaming) here: https://www.cia.gov/library/kent-center-occasional-papers/vol3no2.htmAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9095846283753113916.post-46574053723042219812009-03-10T15:55:00.000-07:002009-03-10T15:55:00.000-07:00Thanks for referring to my post on the pre-mortem....Thanks for referring to my post on the pre-mortem. <BR/><BR/>Best Regards,<BR/>Tom SpencerAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com